ADVANCE Synthesis Scenario Database (2024)

Introduction to ADVANCE

The ADVANCE project (2013-2016) developed a new generation of advanced Integrated Assessment Models and applied the improved models to explore different climate change mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement closed in 2015. The ADVANCE Synthesis Scenario database collects the final scenario results produced in this exercise. The ADVANCE project brought together research institutions from all over Europe, the USA and Japan under the coordination of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It was funded through the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) under grant agreement no. 308329. Scenario Design In the light of the climate goals formulated in the Paris Agreement in 2015, the ADVANCE project has developed a set of global climate policy pathways that explore transitions towards limiting global warming in the 1.5-2°C range (2020_Med2C, 2020_WB2C, 2020_1.5C-2100 scenarios), as well as weaker ambition scenarios assessing future developments without climate policy (NoPolicy), a continuation of current trends (Reference), or an implementation of (intended) nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement (INDC). In addition, the four scenarios 2030_Med2C, 2030_WB2C, 2030_1.5C-2100 consider a transition from the weaker NDC policies implemented until 2030 to a more stringent climate mitigation regime after 2030 in line with the Paris Agreement's temperature goals. Finally, 2030_3xPrice1.5C is a diagnostic scenario with very high carbon prices to explore the lower limit of emission reductions achievable within the techno-economic constraints of the models. The following list provides an overview of the scenarios used in this analysis, while Table 2 below maps the scenario identifiers (IDs) used in the ADVANCE Synthesis scenario database to the scenario names used in the underlying journal articles. Weak policy Scenarios NoPolicy Counter-factual baseline scenario without any climate policy Reference Continuation of climate policy ambition prior to the announcement of the NDCs, accounting for the effects of the Cancun Pledges. INDC Implementation of the (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions by 2030, with an extrapolation of implied effort beyond 2030. Early strengthening towards 1.5-2°C limits 2020_Med2C Mitigation efforts strengthened with globally uniform carbon price after 2020 to limit cumulative 2011-2100 CO2 emissions to 1600 GtCO2 (corresponding to ~1400 GtCO2 from 2016-2100); more likely than not (>50%) to stay below 2°C. 2020_WB2C Mitigation efforts strengthened with globally uniform carbon price after 2020 to limit cumulative 2011-2100 CO2 emissions to 1000 GtCO2 (corresponding to ~800 GtCO2 from 2016-2100); >67% chance of staying below 2°C, consistent with the aim to stabilize well below 2°C. 2020_1.5C-2100 Mitigation efforts strengthened with globally uniform carbon price after 2020 to limit cumulative 2011-2100 CO2 emissions to 400 GtCO2 (corresponding to ~200 GtCO2 from 2016-2100); >67% chance of limiting 2100 warming to 1.5°C. Delayed strengthening towards 1.5-2°C limits 2030_Med2C After implementing the (I)NDCs without strengthening until 2030, carbon budget from the 2020_Med2C scenario is adopted. Meets cumulative CO2 emissions budget of 2020_Med2C scenario. 2030_WB2C After implementing the (I)NDCs without strengthening until 2030, carbon budget from the 2020_WB2C scenario is adopted. Meets cumulative CO2 emissions budget of 2020_WB2C scenario. 2030_1.5C-2100 After implementing the (I)NDCs without strengthening until 2030, carbon budget from the 2020_1.5C-2100 scenario is adopted. Meets cumulative CO2 emissions budget of 2020_1.5C-2100 scenario. 2030_Price1.5C After implementing the (I)NDCs without strengthening until 2030, carbon price trajectories from the 2020_1.5C-2100 scenario are adopted. Exceeds cumulative emission budget of 2020_1.5C-2100 scenario. Additional diagnostic scenario 2030_3xPrice1.5C Very strong mitigation achieved by implementing 3-fold carbon price relative to 2020_1.5C-2100 scenario. This scenario further explores the lower end of decarbonization.

Table 2: Mapping of scenario identifiers (IDs) used in the ADVANCE Synthesis scenario database to scenario names used in the journal articles that analyze the set of scenarios.

Recommended Citation

The ADVANCE Synthesis Scenario Database documents the scenarios underlying the analysis presented in Luderer et al. 2018 (long-term analysis) and Vrontisi et al.2018 (short/medium term implications). Therefore, when using any scenarios from this database, please use the these two references.

References

1. Luderer et al. 2018
   Luderer G, Vrontisi Z, Bertram C, Edelenbosch OY, Pietzcker RC, Rogelj J, De Boer HS, Drouet L, Emmerling J, Fricko O, Fujimori S, Havlik P, Iyer G, Keramidas K, Kitous A, Pehl M, Krey V, Riahi K, Saveyn B, Tavoni M, Van Vuuren DP, Kriegler E (2018) Residual fossil CO₂ emissions in 1.5‐2°C pathways. Nature Climate Change 8:626-633. 10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6
2. Vrontisi et al. 2018
   Vrontisi Z, Luderer G, Saveyn B, Keramidas K, Reis LA, Baumstark L, Bertram C, De Boer HS, Drouet L, Emmerling J, Fragkiadakis K, Fricko O, Fujimori S, Guivarch C, Kitous A, Krey V, Kriegler E, O Broin E, Paroussos L, Van Vuuren D (2018) Enhancing Global Climate Policy Ambition towards a 1.5 °C Stabilization: A Short-Term Multi-Model Assessment. Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 4 (2018): 044039. 10.1088/1748-9326/aab53e

Region definitions

The consolidated results in the database are shown at regional aggregations of the World, five macro regions and several individual countries/regions that are commonly used in scenario analysis. The five macro regions are defined as follows:

Aggregation on the five region level

OECD90+EU = Includes the OECD 1990 countries as well as EU members and candidates.
Albania,Australia,Austria,Belgium,Bosnia and Herzegovina,Bulgaria,Canada, Croatia,Cyprus,Czech Republic,Denmark,Estonia,Fiji,Finland,France,French Polynesia,Germany,Greece,Guam,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Italy,Japan,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,Malta,Macedonia,Montenegro,Netherlands,New Caledonia,New Zealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Romania,Samoa,Serbia,Slovakia,Slovenia,Solomon Islands,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Turkey,United Kingdom, United States of America,Vanuatu

REF = Countries from the Reforming Ecomonies of the Former Soviet Union.
Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Republic of Moldova,Russian Federation,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,Ukraine,Uzbekistan

ASIA = The region includes most Asian countries with the exception of the Middle East, Japan and Former Soviet Union states.
Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,Brunei Darussalam,Cambodia,China,China Hong Kong SAR,China Macao SAR,Democratic People's Republic of Korea,East Timor,India,Indonesia,Lao People's Democratic Republic,Malaysia,Maldives,Mongolia,Myanmar,Nepal,Pakistan,Papua New Guinea,Philippines,Republic of Korea,Singapore,Sri Lanka,Taiwan,Thailand,Viet Nam

MAF = This region includes the countries of the Middle East and Africa.
Algeria,Angola,Bahrain,Benin,Botswana,Burkina Faso,Burundi,Cameroon,Cape Verde,Central African Republic,Chad,Comoros,Congo,Cote d'Ivoire,Democratic Republic of the Congo,Djibouti,Egypt,Equatorial Guinea,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gabon,Gambia,Ghana,Guinea,Guinea-Bissau,Iran (Islamic Republic of),Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kenya,Kuwait,Lebanon,Lesotho,Liberia,Libyan Arab Jamahiriya,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mauritius,Morocco,Mozambique,Namibia,Niger,Nigeria,Oman,Qatar,Reunion,Rwanda,Saudi Arabia,Senegal,Sierra Leone,Somalia,South Africa,Sudan,Swaziland,Syrian Arab Republic,Togo,Tunisia,Uganda,United Arab Emirates,United Republic of Tanzania,Western Sahara,Yemen,Zambia,Zimbabwe

LAM = This region includes the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.
Argentina,Bahamas,Barbados,Belize,Bolivia,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Costa Rica,Cuba,Dominican Republic,Ecuador,El Salvador,Guadeloupe,Guatemala,Guyana,Haiti,Honduras,Jamaica,Martinique,Mexico,Netherlands Antilles,Nicaragua,Panama,Paraguay,Peru,Puerto Rico,Suriname,Trinidad and Tobago,Uruguay,Venezuela

Individual countries/regions represented

In addition to the macro-regionts, the following individual countries are represented in the database:

A short tutorial on the use of the database

A short tutorial on the use of the online database is provided below.
If you experience technical problems with this database, please contact the ADVANCE Database Administrator.

The Navigation tabs

At the upper end of the browser window five navigation tabs can be found that provide different functionality of the web database. These five tabs are described in more detail in the following section.

About tab

The About tab provides information about the database and gives instructions on how to use the database. With exception of the About tab which can be viewed without special permissions, all other tabs require a valid user account (login and password) for the database.After entering the credentials the four additional tabs to navigate the database can be accessed. Which scenarios can be viewed depends on the individual user permissions (see User account). The difference between these three tabs for viewing is the way how scenario data can be combined for viewing.

Common Features of the Sectors, Series, and Scatter tabs

In all three view tabs the following selections can be made in the navigation bars on the upper left-hand side of the browser window:

(1.) Regions: In the upper left area of the screen is a field named Regions. Depending on the tab (see above) you may select one or multiple regions for which the data is shown on the screen. Generally the regions are organized in the two folders Compare and Model Name. While in the Compare folder you can find regions that are (approximately) defined across many models (World, five macro regions and seven countries commonly compared in modeling comparison exercises, see Region definitions), the Model name folder contains the native regions reported to the database.

(2.) Scenarios: This field includes the list of scenarios from which one or more scenarios can be selected. In addition to scenario results, for a number of variables historical and base year data can be shown to compare with scenario results. Note that historical data is only available for the regions in the Compare folder (see also previous paragraph) and that currently only some emission and energy variables are covered. Further, displaying historical data is at the moment only available at the Sectors tab.

(3.) Variables: In this field the variables can be selected for which the data is shown on the screen. Note that in the Sectors tab it is necessary to not only required to tick one or multiple variables for selection, but also to mark a variable name (highlighted in blue) for the graph on the right hand side to be updated. It is not important which variable or variable category is marked to initiate the graph update.

The Chart Preview on the upper right-hand side of the browser window shows the graph of the selected data (variable + scenarios + regions). In addition, the horizontally oriented Query Results area in the middle of the screen shows the data in tabular format.

It is possible to export the data either into Excel or two different graphical formats (PNG = portable network graphics, SVG = scalable vector graphics). In order to do so, select one of the options in the Output Options window at the bottom of the browser window. The field titled Notes shows additional information or explanatory text for the selected variables. The availability of notes is still under development and ultimately the contents will depend on input from modeling teams.

Frequently Asked Questions regarding Data Use

• Am I permitted to use the scenario data for scientific research or science communication, like creating figures, tables or analysis based on the data?
  Yes. We encourage wide use of the scenario ensemble.
  
  
• Am I permitted to adapt and modify the scenario ensemble data?
  Yes. We encourage that the scenario ensemble is used for research and science communication, and you are permitted to share selected parts of the scenario ensemble together with your adapted material.
  For example, if you derive statistical indicators from certain data, it is permitted to share these indicators in any way, and you may include the original data as well, as long as this only includes a limited number of data from the ensemble.
  
  
• Am I permitted to share (parts of) the scenario ensemble data and/or any adaptations and modified material?
  The license grants you the right to make available selected parts of the scenario ensemble data, for example by using the data in figures, online visualization tools, or tables. However, it is not allowed to republish (i.e., make available for download or otherwise distribute) a substantial portion of the scenario ensemble data without written permission from the ADVANCE consortion cordinated by IIASA. In cases where making available a substantial portion of the data is required, please include a link to the ADVANCE Synthesis Scenario Database available at db1.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ADVANCEDB instead of republishing the data.
  
  
• What is a "substantial portion" of a scenario ensemble?
  There is no legal specification of this term - but we interpret it in the sense that a substantial portion would be any part of the data including more than a few timeseries (i.e., variables or indicators), or more than a few scenarios if more variables are included for each scenario.
  For example, using all data for almost all scenarios, but only selecting the global level of reporting, would constitute a substantial portion.
  
  
• I really do need to share or republish a substantial portion of the scenario ensemble data…
  Please contact us at ADVANCE database admin and we will do our best to accommodate your request.
  
  

Why did we choose this license?

We are committed to making the scenario ensemble available as widely as possible, and to encourage broad use of the data for research, science communication and policy analysis beyond the lifetime of the ADVANCE project. We want to facilitate the dialogue on pathways at the interface between science and policy, and we aim to support a better understanding of the scientific basis and the results of the ADVANCE project by releasing this scenario ensemble.

In case we identify reporting issues after the initial release we would like to notify users about these issues and notify them about the corrections. While we did take the utmost care to validate all submitted data, such issues can never be fully avoided. For this reason, we request that downloads of scenario data are routed through the ADVANCE Synthesis Scenario Database at db1.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ADVANCEDB, unless the data is made available in relation to a specific figure or table in a publication or online visualization tool, for example as supplementary material to a manuscript published in a scientific journal.

We will inform registered users of the scenario ensemble about data updates or any other relevant news.

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Changes compared to the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License

The items in Section 2(a)(1) were changed from:

1. reproduce and Share the Licensed Material, in whole or in part; and
2. produce and reproduce, and Share, Adapted Material.

to:

1. reproduce and Share parts of the Licensed Material, as long as this does not constitute a reproduction of a substantial portion of the Licensed Material;
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For the avoidance of doubt: The data contained in the Licensed Material are subject to regular updates by the Licensor. For this reason, the reproduction of a substantial portion of the Licensed Material is prohibited; instead a reference or hyperlink to the repository or distribution of the Licensed Material should be given where necessary.

The introduction of Section 3(a)1 was changed from:

1. If You Share the Licensed Material (including in modified form), […]

to:

1. If You Share any part of the Licensed Material (including in modified form), […]

The first item of Section 4 was changed from:

1. for the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share all or a substantial portion of the contents of the database;

to:

1. for the avoidance of doubt, Section 2(a)(1) grants You the right to extract, reuse, reproduce, and Share contents of the database as long as the Shared contents do not include a substantial part of the Licensed Material;

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This privacy policy sets out how IIASA uses and protects any information that you give IIASA when you use this database.IIASA is committed to ensuring that your privacy is protected. Should we ask you to provide certain information by which you can be identified when using this website, then you can be assured that it will only be used in accordance with this privacy statement.IIASA may change this policy from time to time by updating this page. You should check this page from time to time to ensure that you are happy with any changes. This policy is effective from 17 June 2014.IIASA collects the following information:

• Name
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We require this information to understand your needs and provide you with a better service, and in particular for the following reasons:

• Internal record keeping
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We are committed to ensuring that your information is secure. In order to prevent unauthorized access or disclosure, we have put in place suitable physical, electronic and managerial procedures to safeguard and secure the information we collect online.

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ADVANCE Synthesis Scenario Database, 2018
Available at: https://db1.ene.iiasa.ac.at/ADVANCEDB

Responsible for this page: ADVANCE Database Administrator