Multiple Contributors
Dec 16, 2023, 12:00 PM
We're into the final month of the 2023 NFL regular season and we're sure you are fully prepared for the loaded Week 15 slate. But just in case you need last-minute intel, our NFL analysts have you covered.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down five stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues and can be picked up and started in a jam this weekend. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen making five predictions about how things could play out, including player props. Finally, insider Jeremy Fowler gives the latest buzz, rumors and news you might have missed.
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Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Predictions | Latest buzz
Walder: Five key stat trends that could determine the winners
Does Justin Fields have any hope against the excellent Browns defense?
Cleveland has one of the best defensive units in the NFL. And not just for this season -- for this decade. The Browns' minus-0.11 expected points added (EPA) allowed per play ranks first this season and third since 2014 (behind the 2019 Patriots and 2017 Jaguars).
There is at least one thing working in Fields' favor on Sunday, though. Cleveland is a Cover 1-heavy defense, running it 44% of the time, second most in the NFL. And while Fields ranks 21st in Total QBR overall, the Bears quarterback ranks third in QBR against Cover 1, often taking advantage of it to scramble. If Cleveland sticks with a heavy dosage of Cover 1, it could lead to a big day on the ground for Fields.
Can Osa Odighizuwa get to Josh Allen?
It's not just Micah Parsons who makes the Cowboys' defensive front go, and Odighizuwa's big leap forward this season has stood out. The 2021 third-rounder now has the second-highest pass rush win rate at defensive tackle in the NFL (20%) -- behind only Aaron Donald. Wow! It has helped him to three sacks from inside.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 14, 2023Double team rate at defensive tackle (x) by pass rush win rate defensive tackle (y), updated through Week 14.
Hello, Osa Odighizuwa! pic.twitter.com/JYJTOmZR0T
As strong as Dallas looks right now, Buffalo is a serious threat in any game. So getting pressure from Parsons and Odighizuwa against the Bills' Allen would go a long way on Sunday.
Could Ivan Pace Jr.'s rookie breakout help lift the Vikings over the Bengals?
The Minnesota defense is having a solid season under coordinator Brian Flores. And Pace -- an undrafted rookie out of Cincinnati -- has truly stood out after taking over a starting role and playing every snap in each of the Vikings' past three games. His numbers are pretty awesome: He ranks seventh in run stop win rate (40%) among linebackers and has a 32% pass rush win rate.
With Nick Mullens now starting at quarterback, the Vikings need all the help they can get from their defense, and Pace looks like a surprise player to provide it. On Saturday, Minnesota will face the Bengals, who are second in the NFL in yards per play (6.5) and seventh in offensive points per game (26.0) since Jake Browning took over under center in Week 12.
Can Tommy DeVito avoid sacks against the Saints?
Heading into the Giants' Monday night upset of the Packers, DeVito had recorded an obscene 19% sack rate and had been taken down for a sack on 45% of his pressures. But then DeVito wasn't sacked a single time against Green Bay. It's not that he wasn't pressured -- he was 11 times -- but rather that he was able to use his legs to move in the pocket to either get a pass attempt or scramble. It was a very effective change, and if he can keep that up, he'll give the Giants a chance against New Orleans.
The Saints are tied for 29th in the league with 23 sacks this season, and their 31% pass rush win rate is the NFL's worst.
Could the Jets' defense stop the Dolphins' high-flying offense?
Yes, the Jets are longshots to win on Sunday, regardless of receiver Tyreek Hill's status (ankle). But the Jets' defense really does deserve serious praise. The unit moved into the No. 1 ranking in ESPN's Football Power Index defensive metric after last week.
Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's QBR without Hill this season is just 56, so if the speedy receiver were to even be limited, you have to wonder if the Jets' defense just might give the team a chance.
Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you should pick up -- and can start this week
Noah Brown, WR, Houston Texans (41.7% rostered)
Over the past two games, Brown has managed seven targets and zero fantasy points. But before missing Weeks 11-12 with an injury, he had scored 24 or more fantasy points in consecutive games in Weeks 9-10. Brown could see a significant increase in targets against the Titans, regardless of whether C.J. Stroud or Davis Mills is under center. It's worth noting that Tennessee's defense ranks eighth in fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders (41.6% rostered)
The Commanders lead the league with 39.2 pass attempts per game, and quarterback Sam Howell distributes his targets fairly evenly. Samuel has scored at least 10.0 fantasy points in two straight games, playing like Washington's No. 1 receiver at this moment. And as underdogs against the Rams, the Commanders will have to rely more on the passing game.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans (17.6% rostered)
Levis had a season-high 327 passing yards against the Dolphins on Monday night and finished with 16.5 fantasy points, his second-best fantasy performance since his debut in Week 8. He faces a Texans defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Don't overlook Levis if you're desperate for options at quarterback.
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (6.3% rostered)
Over the past few weeks, the Bengals have tried to get Brown more involved in the offense. In Week 13, Brown rushed for 61 yards on nine carries, and in Week 14, he had 11 touches for 105 yards and a season-high 19.5 fantasy points. It's safe to say that the rookie has aced his audition. He still trails Joe Mixon in the backfield hierarchy, but he has shown he's capable of putting up flex-worthy production for fantasy managers.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers (2.7% rostered)
Over the past three games, Kraft has done a great job filling the void left by Luke Musgrave. He has accumulated 12 total targets, scoring 9.5 or more fantasy points in two of the three games during that time frame. And as Jordan Love's rapport with Kraft continues to improve, he is now matched up against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Bowen: Five sneaky predictions for Sunday's action
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will throw three or more touchdown passes
Stafford has thrown at least three touchdown passes in each of his past three starts, and he has a Total QBR of 78.6 during that stretch. He is playing at a really high level, seeing it fast and driving the ball from the pocket. And I really like the matchup for Stafford against the Washington defense. The Commanders are allowing a league-worst 30.4 points per game, and I think Stafford could post big numbers here.
Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott will have five or more receptions
Playing the lead back role for the Patriots, Elliott saw 29 touches in the Week 14 win over the Steelers, including seven receptions. We saw Elliott releasing to the flat, catching the ball on screens and hauling in checkdowns. Given the Chiefs' pressure identity on defense and New England quarterback Bailey Zappe's willingness to get the ball out quickly, look for Zeke to be deployed as a primary outlet on underneath targets against Kansas City.
Colts cornerback Kenny Moore II will have an interception
Mitch Trubisky has thrown at least one interception in two of his past three games played, and he looked frenetic in the pocket during the Week 14 loss to the Patriots. I expect the Colts to be heavy in post-snap secondary rotation here to cloud the looks for Trubisky. And that should open the door for Moore -- who has three picks on the season -- to steal one on Saturday.
Bills receiver Stefon Diggs will catch a touchdown
Diggs has one touchdown reception over his past four games, and he was held to 24 receiving yards in the Week 14 win over the Chiefs, catching four of 11 targets there. But I like Diggs this week against a Cowboys defense that plays man coverage on 64.4% of opponent dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. Look for a double move early, with Allen taking a vertical shot to Diggs.
Browns linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah will have a sack
I fully expect Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to heat up Fields on Sunday, leaning on interior blitz schemes to fill the A and B gaps. The idea here is to eliminate Fields' ability to create on second-reaction scrambles by finding those open rush lanes. Look for Schwartz to use Owusu-Koramoah, who has 2.5 sacks and seven pressures, as a second-level blitzer.
Fowler: What I'm hearing as we near kickoff
Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill (questionable, ankle) is shaping up to be a game-time decision. He's hardly a slam dunk to play after missing the entire week of practice. But the Dolphins will discuss his comfort level with playing before kickoff on Sunday. The Dolphins have trusted veteran players at times to make their way onto the field on game days despite not practicing -- Terron Armstead is another example there.
The Vikings are in ride-the-hot-hand mode at quarterback. Joshua Dobbs caught fire after landing in Minnesota at the trade deadline but has cooled down, paving the way for Nick Mullens, this week's starter. But it wouldn't shock to see rookie Jaren Hall reenter the lineup at some point. The Vikings want to bring Hall along slowly, but they like his upside and poise. He's now the No. 2 quarterback behind Mullens, with Dobbs as the emergency No. 3. If Mullens cools down, Hall will be ready.
In other quarterback news, the Browns and Joe Flacco did not seriously discuss 2024 as part of his contract this week. The Browns are all-in on Deshaun Watson next season, and Flacco wants to go somewhere with a chance to play. But both sides can keep the door open if Flacco stays productive, and Cleveland wants him as the clear-cut No. 2.
In Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers are optimistic about receiver Chris Godwin (knee), who's listed as a game-time decision. They believe they have given Godwin adequate rest, and he looked good Friday as a full practice participant. This one is trending up.
